# Trend And Theme Momentum Rules

## Purpose

Capture asymmetric upside from active trend and theme stocks without turning the account into a chase machine.

This strategy adds a deliberate, rule-bound way to use high-attention movers — Trump-tracked / policy-news names, OPEN (Opendoor), drone names (SWMR, ONDS), and similar high-beta trend tickers — as opportunity-cost candidates alongside the core x2 growth plan.

It is one strategy among many. It never overrides risk control, cash readiness, or the SOXL 10,000,000 KRW reserve rule.

## Theme Buckets (dynamic watchlist)

Maintain a small, regularly refreshed watchlist grouped by theme. Default seeds:

- `TRUMP-TRACK`: Trump-policy / Trump-news sensitive names. Anchor: DJT (Trump Media). Rotating members can include policy-beneficiary groups (private prisons, defense, fossil energy, crypto-proxies, tariff winners/losers) — only when a real, dated catalyst or official statement is driving them.
- `RETAIL-MOMENTUM`: high-attention retail movers. Seed: OPEN (Opendoor).
- `DRONE/DEFENSE-TECH`: drone & counter-drone theme. Seeds: SWMR, ONDS (Ondas Holdings); related peers to confirm alongside: RCAT (Red Cat), UMAC (Unusual Machines), AVAV (AeroVironment), KTOS (Kratos). Watch defense-budget / policy and contract headlines as drivers.
- `USER-ADDED`: any ticker the user flags as "추세 종목" for the day.

Rules:
- Keep each theme to the 2-3 strongest names. Sympathy/low-quality names are watch-only.
- A theme is only "live" when there is a real driver: official news, dated catalyst, sector breakout, or confirmed volume. Social buzz alone is a low-confidence signal layer, not a reason to buy.

## Trend Qualification

A theme ticker becomes `TREND ACTIVE` only when most are true:

1. Market regime allows it: `RISK-ON`, `SELECTIVE MOMENTUM`, or a clean `BEAR TRAP` reversal — never during `BUBBLE CHASE` or `DISTRIBUTION` for fresh entries.
2. There is a concrete driver (policy/news/earnings/contract/sector breakout) and it is classified as official vs rumor.
3. The move has volume confirmation and relative strength vs SPY/QQQ.
4. Entry is not over-extended from VWAP, breakout level, or planned trigger.
5. Invalidation is definable before entry, and the loss budget fits the account.
6. The candidate beats at least one current holding on risk-adjusted, after-tax opportunity cost.

If the setup is good but extended → `WAIT FOR RESET`.

## Action Labels

- `TREND ACTIVE`: trade review justified; user still places the order.
- `STAGED ENTRY`: start small, add only on continuation/confirmation.
- `WAIT FOR RESET`: good theme, chase risk too high now.
- `WATCHLIST ONLY`: interesting, not actionable yet.
- `AVOID CHASE`: extended or unsupported; theme buyers are exit liquidity.
- `TREND BROKEN`: driver faded or invalidation hit → exit/trim, move to tracker.

## Trump-News Event Handling

Trump-tracked names move on headlines, so treat them as event-driven:

- Separate official action (executive order, signed policy, formal statement, filing) from rumor / social post / speculation.
- On a fresh headline, default to `STAGED ENTRY` or `WAIT FOR RESET`, not full-size chase — first prints are often unstable.
- Define a headline-fade invalidation: if the move round-trips the initial spike or loses VWAP, treat as `TREND BROKEN`.
- Never hold a pure headline trade into an unrelated macro event (CPI/FOMC/jobs) without a plan.

## Entry, Sizing, Exit

Entry:
- Prefer breakout-with-volume or reclaim-of-level over buying a vertical spike.
- Staged entries over emotional full-size entries.

Sizing (start smaller when):
- Ticker is high beta or low liquidity.
- Catalyst is fresh and price discovery is unstable.
- Account already exposed to the same theme.
- Entry is after a large gap-up.

Exit:
- Predefine first-trim level and trailing logic before entry.
- Scale out into strength; do not give back the majority of a fast gain.
- Hard invalidation = thesis/driver broken or stop level lost.

## Portfolio Rotation (opportunity cost)

Every trend alert compares the candidate with current holdings:

- `Keep`: holding still has better expected value.
- `Trim Source`: holding can fund the better setup.
- `Replace Candidate`: holding has weak upside or rising thesis risk.
- `No Action`: no capital move needed.

Average cost is not a veto. Tax drag is a cost, not a veto. Decision is after-tax and risk-adjusted. Do not overconcentrate the account in one theme.

## Aftermarket / Extended-Hours Notes

- Extended-hours liquidity is thin and spreads widen → size down, use limit logic, expect gaps.
- A big aftermarket move on a headline is a candidate for `STAGED ENTRY` or `WAIT FOR RESET`, rarely full chase.
- Re-confirm at the regular-session open: many aftermarket moves fade in the first 30-60 minutes.
- For Trump/news names, verify the headline is official before acting on an aftermarket spike.

## Hard Guardrails

Do not use this strategy to:
- Chase a vertical move that already consumed most of the expected upside.
- Buy on rumor-only or social buzz with no dated catalyst.
- Bypass the SOXL 10,000,000 KRW cash reserve and cash-readiness rules.
- Recover weekly/monthly quest pressure with a forced trade.
- Overconcentrate into one theme or stack correlated high-beta names.

## Required Output

Every trend/theme review should include:
- Active theme(s) and the 2-3 strongest tickers.
- Driver: official vs rumor, and dated catalyst if any.
- Regime fit and relative strength.
- Action label per ticker (TREND ACTIVE / STAGED ENTRY / WAIT FOR RESET / WATCHLIST / AVOID CHASE / TREND BROKEN).
- Entry trigger, chase-limit, invalidation, initial size, first-trim.
- Which current holding it competes against (rotation call).
- Cash/SOXL impact and "Do now / Do not do / Next check".

## Kakao Summary Format

`추세/테마: Market [...]. 테마 [...]. Top [...]. 진입 [...]. 대기 [...]. 금지(추격) [...]. Cash/SOXL [...].`