# Market Flow And Bubble Radar Rules

## Purpose

This radar converts fast market flow into intuitive labels.

It should answer quickly:

- Is the market in a bubble-like chase?
- Is leadership healthy or narrowing?
- Are institutions accumulating or distributing?
- Is this a real breakout, short squeeze, bull trap, bear trap, or liquidity trap?
- Should the user attack, defend, harvest, wait, or rest?

## Flow Labels

- `HEALTHY RISK-ON`: broad strength, good volume, leadership improving.
- `SELECTIVE MOMENTUM`: only strong names should be traded.
- `BUBBLE CHASE`: prices rising fast with crowd excitement and weak risk/reward.
- `DISTRIBUTION`: bounces are sold, weak closes, high-volume selling.
- `CAPITULATION`: forced selling or panic; rebound may form but not confirmed.
- `SHORT SQUEEZE`: violent upside, often fast but fragile.
- `BULL TRAP`: breakout fails or gap-up fades.
- `BEAR TRAP`: breakdown reverses and shorts are forced to cover.
- `LIQUIDITY AIR POCKET`: thin bid, fast drops, spreads widen.
- `NO EDGE`: noisy, mixed, and not worth the user's attention.

## Order Labels

The radar should use these action labels:

- `ATTACK`: A-grade long or SOXL/TQQQ-style setup allowed.
- `DEFEND`: reduce exposure, hedge, or consider SOXS/SQQQ if criteria match.
- `HARVEST`: take profit, trim, trail stops.
- `WAIT`: no new trade until confirmation.
- `RESET`: move ticker to tracker, wait for cleaner re-entry.
- `REST`: no new trades; protect fatigue and attention.

## Source Sweep

Use the broadest reliable source set available:

Market structure:

- SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA.
- SMH, SOXX, SOXL, SOXS.
- XLK, XLF, XLE, XLU, XLI, XLY, XLP.
- VIX, VIX futures/term structure when available.
- US 10-year yield, 2-year yield, dollar, oil, gold.
- Market breadth: advancers/decliners, new highs/lows, up/down volume if available.

Leadership:

- NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, TSM, ASML.
- Mega-cap tech: AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA.
- High beta and user holdings: RDW, NASA exact ticker pending, MRVL, GNTA, AAOI.

Event/news:

- SEC EDGAR filings.
- Company press releases and IR.
- Earnings/guidance.
- Analyst upgrades/downgrades.
- IPO/listing/lockup/offering/convertible/warrant news.
- Macro calendar and Fed speakers.

Flow/psychology:

- Unusual volume.
- Gap-up hold or fade.
- VWAP reclaim/loss.
- Strong close vs weak close.
- Short interest/short-sale volume where official data is available.
- Options/gamma/put-call clues where source is available.
- Social/news excitement only as a low-confidence signal layer.

## Bubble/Overheat Conditions

Flag `BUBBLE CHASE` when several appear together:

- Price far above moving averages or VWAP.
- Volume spike without new fundamental catalyst.
- Social/news excitement becomes the main reason to buy.
- Lower-quality sympathy names rise together.
- Upside remaining is smaller than downside to invalidation.
- User feels urgent FOMO.

Action default: `HARVEST` or `WAIT`, not chase.

## Distribution Conditions

Flag `DISTRIBUTION` when:

- Indexes or leaders close near lows after intraday strength.
- High-volume sell days cluster.
- Good news is sold.
- Breadth weakens while indexes look okay.
- Leaders fail breakouts.

Action default: `DEFEND`, `TRIM`, or `SOXS WATCH` if semiconductor breakdown confirms.

## Positive Flow Conditions

Flag `HEALTHY RISK-ON` or `SELECTIVE MOMENTUM` when:

- Breadth improves.
- Leaders close strong.
- Pullbacks are bought.
- Bad news no longer creates new lows.
- Semiconductors and QQQ confirm together.
- Volume supports the move.

Action default: `ATTACK` or `STAGED ENTRY`, with target and stop.

## Required Output

Every flow radar report should include:

- One-line regime.
- Flow label.
- Bubble/distribution score from 0-100.
- Top 3 bullish signals.
- Top 3 risk signals.
- Top 3 tickers/ETFs to act on or watch.
- SOXL/SOXS direction.
- Order label: ATTACK/DEFEND/HARVEST/WAIT/RESET/REST.
- Do now / Do not do / Next check.

## Kakao Summary Format

`흐름경보: [label] 점수 [...]. 강세 [...]. 위험 [...]. SOXL/SOXS [...]. 오더 [...]. 지금 [...]. 금지 [...].`