# Long-Term Hold And Timing Rules

## Purpose

Some stocks deserve long-term holding. Many good stocks do not deserve capital today.

The agent should separate:

- `CORE HOLD`: long-term compounding position worth holding through normal volatility.
- `TIMED ENTRY`: good company or theme, but buy only near a catalyst or technical trigger.
- `DORMANT WATCH`: likely to move too little for 1 month or more; track, but do not allocate capital now.
- `TACTICAL ONLY`: trade the move, take profit, and return to tracker.
- `EXCLUDE`: weak setup, poor liquidity, broken thesis, or opportunity cost too high.

## Core Hold Qualification

A stock can be `CORE HOLD` only when most of these are true:

- Durable multi-quarter or multi-year thesis.
- Earnings, cash flow, backlog, or TAM expansion supports compounding.
- The expected return is competitive with alternatives after tax and risk.
- The position improves portfolio quality or diversification.
- There is no obvious 1-month dead-money period ahead.
- The user can hold it without needing daily emotional decision-making.

## Dormant Exclusion Rule

If a stock is expected to show limited movement for more than 1 month, classify it as `DORMANT WATCH` or `EXCLUDE` unless:

- It is a true core compounding position.
- It protects the portfolio during risk-off conditions.
- It has a near-term dividend, buyback, earnings, product, regulatory, or event catalyst.
- It has unusually strong asymmetric downside protection.

Do not keep capital trapped in a flat setup just because the company is good.

## Timed Entry Rule

For stocks that are fundamentally attractive but not ready:

- Keep them on the tracker.
- Define the expected rise window.
- Define the entry trigger.
- Define the catalyst.
- Define invalidation.
- Enter only when the setup becomes active.
- Use shorter holding periods when the move is catalyst-driven.

## Required Report Output

Every portfolio or opportunity report should include:

1. `CORE HOLD` candidates and why they deserve long-term capital.
2. `DORMANT WATCH` names expected to be flat for 1 month or more.
3. `TIMED ENTRY` names to buy only near expected upside windows.
4. `TACTICAL ONLY` names for +10%, +15%, +20%, or +30% cycle trades.
5. Capital release recommendation for names with high opportunity cost.

## Decision Rule

Long-term holding is allowed, but it must earn the right to occupy capital.

If a stock is high quality but likely flat for more than a month, and another setup has credible near-term 15-20% upside with defined risk, prefer the active setup.