{
  "as_of_utc": "2026-06-06T03:52:08.973460+00:00",
  "period": "10y",
  "source": "yfinance adjusted close",
  "tickers": [
    "SPY",
    "QQQ",
    "IWM",
    "SMH",
    "SOXX",
    "SOXL",
    "SOXS",
    "NVDA",
    "AVGO",
    "AMD",
    "MU",
    "TSM",
    "ASML",
    "^VIX"
  ],
  "regime_counts": {
    "risk_on": 1200,
    "selective": 385,
    "chop": 423,
    "selloff": 183,
    "rebound": 79,
    "crash": 46
  },
  "regimes": {
    "risk_on": {
      "basket": [
        0.0023702943684811373,
        0.009520923305562274
      ],
      "quality": [
        0.0020251534163151165,
        0.007822413780589907
      ],
      "leader": [
        0.0045661867015368875,
        0.01791413177269734
      ],
      "soxl": [
        0.010609528710042192,
        0.04865696052834283
      ],
      "soxs": [
        -0.010618274450933628,
        0.04888702439431893
      ]
    },
    "selective": {
      "basket": [
        0.0004959137238614058,
        0.01329507153085414
      ],
      "quality": [
        0.0003440034842352579,
        0.011573657802099412
      ],
      "leader": [
        0.0013079909621284745,
        0.021767177702856196
      ],
      "soxl": [
        0.0025149380236910335,
        0.0609060357152595
      ],
      "soxs": [
        -0.0025883307643122604,
        0.06138047367607062
      ]
    },
    "chop": {
      "basket": [
        -0.00018142575561120287,
        0.014284789203655042
      ],
      "quality": [
        0.0002422869878253772,
        0.012790299303180663
      ],
      "leader": [
        -0.0009399470398388128,
        0.023556812257855633
      ],
      "soxl": [
        -0.003899941875852294,
        0.06322957476322924
      ],
      "soxs": [
        0.003812784423539282,
        0.0638319639467503
      ]
    },
    "selloff": {
      "basket": [
        -0.006732162855910767,
        0.02074877377880659
      ],
      "quality": [
        -0.006032380313241606,
        0.01879867608078906
      ],
      "leader": [
        -0.010561636554846307,
        0.03310153313771949
      ],
      "soxl": [
        -0.028271469738919763,
        0.0933176128509816
      ],
      "soxs": [
        0.027744347866045137,
        0.09427900145152465
      ]
    },
    "rebound": {
      "basket": [
        0.016657043796933328,
        0.018391393256855692
      ],
      "quality": [
        0.014805195187933806,
        0.01670228901301265
      ],
      "leader": [
        0.02443280236052044,
        0.025804151021567762
      ],
      "soxl": [
        0.0696150150848936,
        0.07676300152851767
      ],
      "soxs": [
        -0.07014868802673263,
        0.07584698566971122
      ]
    },
    "crash": {
      "basket": [
        -0.023883456966552426,
        0.03558116257287745
      ],
      "quality": [
        -0.022207942603054687,
        0.034140696684267446
      ],
      "leader": [
        -0.0283899520923941,
        0.04461429885480346
      ],
      "soxl": [
        -0.0852296738874701,
        0.11872000931005171
      ],
      "soxs": [
        0.0820518572851927,
        0.13760974942777154
      ]
    }
  },
  "transitions": {
    "risk_on": [
      [
        "risk_on",
        0.9178423236514522
      ],
      [
        "selective",
        0.054771784232365145
      ],
      [
        "chop",
        0.016597510373443983
      ],
      [
        "selloff",
        0.0024896265560165973
      ],
      [
        "rebound",
        0.0033195020746887966
      ],
      [
        "crash",
        0.004979253112033195
      ]
    ],
    "selective": [
      [
        "risk_on",
        0.16879795396419436
      ],
      [
        "selective",
        0.6470588235294118
      ],
      [
        "chop",
        0.09207161125319693
      ],
      [
        "selloff",
        0.05370843989769821
      ],
      [
        "rebound",
        0.028132992327365727
      ],
      [
        "crash",
        0.010230179028132993
      ]
    ],
    "chop": [
      [
        "risk_on",
        0.04895104895104895
      ],
      [
        "selective",
        0.0979020979020979
      ],
      [
        "chop",
        0.6526806526806527
      ],
      [
        "selloff",
        0.10722610722610723
      ],
      [
        "rebound",
        0.07692307692307693
      ],
      [
        "crash",
        0.016317016317016316
      ]
    ],
    "selloff": [
      [
        "risk_on",
        0.010582010582010581
      ],
      [
        "selective",
        0.06349206349206349
      ],
      [
        "chop",
        0.32275132275132273
      ],
      [
        "selloff",
        0.5132275132275133
      ],
      [
        "rebound",
        0.015873015873015872
      ],
      [
        "crash",
        0.07407407407407407
      ]
    ],
    "rebound": [
      [
        "risk_on",
        0.09411764705882353
      ],
      [
        "selective",
        0.15294117647058825
      ],
      [
        "chop",
        0.32941176470588235
      ],
      [
        "selloff",
        0.047058823529411764
      ],
      [
        "rebound",
        0.36470588235294116
      ],
      [
        "crash",
        0.011764705882352941
      ]
    ],
    "crash": [
      [
        "risk_on",
        0.057692307692307696
      ],
      [
        "selective",
        0.07692307692307693
      ],
      [
        "chop",
        0.07692307692307693
      ],
      [
        "selloff",
        0.34615384615384615
      ],
      [
        "rebound",
        0.057692307692307696
      ],
      [
        "crash",
        0.38461538461538464
      ]
    ]
  },
  "notes": [
    "Historical calibration is a guide, not a guarantee.",
    "SOXL/SOXS are daily leveraged products; long-horizon simulation still requires daily revalidation.",
    "Classification uses QQQ/SMH/SOXX/VIX trend and drawdown rules."
  ]
}