# Elite Analyst Signal Strategy

## Purpose

Use high-quality Wall Street analyst opinions as a signal layer, not as automatic buy/sell instructions.

The agent should feel like it has a memory of which analysts are strong in which areas.

## Primary Sources

- StockAnalysis Top Wall Street Analysts, which displays TipRanks-sourced analyst performance and is updated daily.
- TipRanks analyst pages, firm pages, Top Analyst pages, and methodology/FAQ.
- Company-specific analyst rating pages from reputable financial data providers when available.
- Broker/firm research summaries only when they are public and attributable.

## Trust Tiers

- `A`: success rate >= 70%, strong average return, adequate rating count, recent rating.
- `A-`: around 70% or strong sector specialist with high average return but one field needs verification.
- `Watch`: influential sector analyst, but current success rate or average return needs verification.
- `Ignore`: stale, low hit rate, no clear sector edge, or generic consensus-only commentary.

## Sector Memory

Track analysts by strength, not fame:

- Semiconductors and AI infrastructure: NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, MRVL, TSM, ASML, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, SOXX/SMH/SOXL.
- Space and defense: RDW, LUNR, RKLB, SPCE, defense tech, SpaceX/SPCX sympathy trades.
- Financials: banks, brokers, capital markets, credit cycle.
- Energy: oil, gas, midstream, commodities, geopolitical shock sensitivity.
- Industrials: transports, machinery, aerospace/defense supply chain.

## Required Report Output

Every analyst-aware report should include:

1. Elite analyst changes: upgrades, downgrades, reiterations, target changes from trusted analysts.
2. Analyst strength: analyst, firm, sector, success rate, average return, last verified.
3. Signal classification: thesis-confirming, thesis-warning, catalyst, noise, or contrarian.
4. Consensus divergence: whether elite analysts disagree with broad consensus.
5. Action impact: no action, watch, add confidence, reduce confidence, trim, avoid chase.

## Rules

- Never buy solely because a famous analyst raised a target.
- Give more weight to analysts with verified success rate, average return, rating count, and sector fit.
- Treat price-target hikes after a large run as possible FOMO fuel, not automatic upside.
- Treat downgrades from a strong sector analyst as risk alerts even if the market ignores them for one day.
- For SOXL and semiconductor trades, prioritize semiconductor specialist signals over generic market strategist commentary.
- For RDW and space/theme trades, distinguish true company-specific analyst work from SpaceX/SPCX sympathy commentary.