# Current Recovery Playbook

## Situation

The main account moved from approximately 76,000,000 KRW to 55,000,000 KRW after a market selloff.

This is not a normal small drawdown. The first objective is account recovery and decision clarity, not proving that every original thesis was right.

## Current Core Holdings

- RDW
- NASA: exact ticker/name needs confirmation.
- MU
- MRVL
- GNTA: partial/small position.
- AAOI
- AMD

## Immediate Priority

Do not choose between panic selling everything and blindly holding everything.

Use triage:

1. Confirm exact position data: quantity, average cost, current value, weight, cash.
2. Split holdings into buckets: CORE HOLD, TIMED ENTRY, TACTICAL, SPECULATIVE ONLY, EXIT/REDUCE.
3. Identify whether each position has thesis damage or only price damage.
4. Decide what should be sold into a rebound, what should be held with a stop, and what should be excluded from new capital.
5. Keep cash as a valid recovery tool.

## Broad Chart Recovery Lens

Before deciding whether to sell, hold, or add, check whether the current market decline is behaving like the prior April-style fast correction/rebound or like a deeper trend break.

Also use:

- `/Users/jangbogeun/Documents/Codex/2026-06-06/2/outputs/selloff_cause_and_response_protocol.md`

Required checks:

1. `SPY`, `QQQ`, `SMH`, and `SOXX` drawdown from recent high.
2. Whether the decline is fast capitulation or slow distribution.
3. 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving-average status.
4. VIX direction and whether fear is peaking or still expanding.
5. Semiconductor leadership: are `NVDA`, `AVGO`, `AMD`, `MU`, `TSM`, and `ASML` stabilizing?
6. First rebound quality: broad participation, VWAP hold, close near high, and follow-through day.
7. Whether bad news stops creating new lows.

Classify the market as `APRIL-STYLE REBOUND CANDIDATE`, `NORMAL PULLBACK`, `FAILED BOUNCE`, `TREND BREAK`, `SECTOR ROTATION`, or `UNKNOWN`.

If it is only `REBOUND WATCH`, do not panic sell lows and do not average down blindly. Prepare which positions to trim into rebound and which candidates deserve fresh capital only after confirmation.

## Selloff Cause First

Every recovery review must identify the selloff cause before recommending a trade:

- `MACRO`: jobs, yields, Fed policy expectations, dollar.
- `EARNINGS`: bellwether earnings/guidance, especially AI and semiconductors.
- `LIQUIDITY`: IPO subscriptions, offerings, fund flows, margin pressure.
- `POSITIONING`: crowded AI/semiconductor trade, valuation reset, options/gamma.
- `TECHNICAL`: failed bounce, support break, distribution, breadth collapse.

The output must say whether the cause is still active. If the cause is no longer intensifying and the decline is broad price damage, default away from panic selling and toward `HOLD WITH STOP`, `SELL INTO REBOUND`, or `PARTIAL TAX-LOSS RESET`.

## Working Classification

| Ticker | Working Bucket | Initial View |
| --- | --- | --- |
| RDW | TACTICAL / recovery candidate | High-beta space-defense stock. Do not panic sell only because it fell, but do not treat it as safe core. Requires price level, liquidity, and catalyst check. |
| NASA | NEEDS CONFIRMATION | Exact ticker required before analysis. |
| MU | CORE HOLD REVIEW / SWING | Stronger fundamental candidate due to AI memory/HBM cycle, but recent semiconductor selloff means size and recovery trigger matter. |
| MRVL | SWING / TIMED ENTRY | AI infrastructure/custom silicon exposure, but should compete with MU/AMD/SMH/SOXL for capital. |
| GNTA | SPECULATIVE ONLY | Small position only unless liquidity, filings, and catalyst are clear. |
| AAOI | TACTICAL / WAIT FOR RESET | High-upside optical AI name but very high volatility and valuation risk. Not default core. |
| AMD | SWING / TIMED ENTRY | Quality semiconductor rebound candidate, but needs AMD-specific relative strength. |

## Emergency Recovery Rules

- No new averaging down until weights and invalidation levels are known.
- Do not sell all positions just because the account is down.
- Do not upgrade tactical losers into long-term holds.
- Trim or exit first if a position violates thesis, not merely because it is red.
- If a position is too large and high-beta, use rebounds to reduce risk.
- A 100% cash day is allowed if market quality is poor or mental load is high.
- Tax-loss reset is allowed only when it improves after-tax optionality without sacrificing a high-probability rebound or a better capital destination.
- If a selloff happened before action could be taken, the next report must still propose a minimum useful action: hold with stop, sell into rebound, trim now, tax-loss reset, rotate, cash, or SOXS defense.

## Data Needed From User

Minimum:

```text
RECOVERY_PACKET
main_total: 55,000,000 KRW
main_cash:
sub_total:
sub_cash:
positions:
- RDW / qty / avg / current / account / weight
- NASA / qty / avg / current / account / weight
- MU / qty / avg / current / account / weight
- MRVL / qty / avg / current / account / weight
- GNTA / qty / avg / current / account / weight
- AAOI / qty / avg / current / account / weight
- AMD / qty / avg / current / account / weight
urgent_question:
```

Best:

- Add realized gain/loss YTD.
- Add tax lots if some positions have large gains.
- Add which positions the user emotionally wants to keep.
- Add positions that can be sold first if SOXL cash is needed.