# Broad Chart Rebound Framework

## Purpose

This framework helps the agent look at the market from a wider chart perspective.

The goal is to decide whether the current selloff looks more like:

- a normal pullback before continuation,
- an April-style fast correction and rebound,
- a deeper trend break,
- a sector rotation,
- a bear-market style distribution phase,
- or a still-unknown regime that requires cash and patience.

The agent must not assume two selloffs are the same just because the chart feels similar. It should compare measurable features.

## Core Indexes And Instruments

Always check:

- `SPY`
- `QQQ`
- `IWM`
- `SMH`
- `SOXX`
- `SOXL`
- `NVDA`
- `AVGO`
- `AMD`
- `MU`
- `VIX`
- US 10-year yield
- USD index or dollar proxy

## Analogy Checklist

Compare the current selloff with the prior April selloff and other relevant recent corrections using:

1. Drawdown from recent high.
2. Number of trading days from high to low.
3. Distance from 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.
4. Whether QQQ/SPY/SMH are above or below the 50-day and 200-day lines.
5. VIX level and whether VIX is still rising or fading.
6. Volume pattern: capitulation, distribution, or low-volume drift.
7. Market breadth: are many stocks bouncing or only mega-cap names?
8. Semiconductor leadership: is `SMH/SOXX` stabilizing before QQQ or dragging it lower?
9. Credit/rates/dollar pressure: is macro pressure easing or still accelerating?
10. First rebound quality: gap-up hold, VWAP hold, close near high, follow-through day, or failed bounce.

## Rebound Probability Labels

- `REBOUND WATCH`: setup is forming, but confirmation is not enough.
- `TACTICAL REBOUND ACTIVE`: oversold rebound is tradable with defined stops.
- `TREND REPAIR`: indexes are reclaiming key levels and breadth is improving.
- `FAILED BOUNCE`: first rebound attempt is rejected or sold into.
- `TREND BREAK`: key moving averages and leadership are broken; defense first.
- `CASH ADVANTAGE`: cash has better expected value than forcing exposure.

## April-Style Rebound Pattern

Classify as `APRIL-STYLE REBOUND CANDIDATE` only when most of these are true:

- The selloff was fast and sharp rather than slow distribution.
- VIX spiked and then stopped rising.
- QQQ/SPY or SMH/SOXX started stabilizing near a known support zone.
- The first rebound has real breadth, not only one or two mega-cap names.
- Semiconductor bellwethers stop making fresh lows.
- Bad news stops producing new lows.
- A follow-through day appears within several sessions.

If only price is down but VIX, breadth, rates, dollar, and semiconductors are still deteriorating, do not call it April-style yet.

## Leverage Implication

For `SOXL`, analogy is not enough.

SOXL can move from `금지` to `관찰` or `2-3거래일 내 준비` only when:

- `SMH/SOXX` stop making lower lows.
- `NVDA/AVGO/AMD/MU/TSM/ASML` show stabilization or leadership repair.
- VIX stops rising.
- QQQ reclaims or defends a meaningful level.
- The first rebound does not immediately fail.

SOXL first proposal still requires 10,000,000 KRW cash readiness 2-3 trading days in advance.

## Portfolio Implication

When the broad chart is in `REBOUND WATCH`:

- Do not panic sell everything at the low.
- Do not average down blindly.
- Identify which holdings should be sold into rebound.
- Identify which holdings deserve add-on only after confirmation.
- Keep cash ready for stronger external opportunities.

When the broad chart is in `FAILED BOUNCE` or `TREND BREAK`:

- Reduce high-beta tactical exposure first.
- Avoid SOXL/TQQQ unless using very short tactical rules.
- Prioritize cash, hedges, or only the strongest relative-strength names.

## Required Report Output

Every broad-chart check should include:

- Market analogy: April-style, normal pullback, failed bounce, trend break, sector rotation, or unknown.
- Similarity score: 0-100.
- Key similarities.
- Key differences.
- Rebound probability label.
- What confirms rebound.
- What invalidates rebound.
- Impact on holdings.
- Impact on SOXL/cash.

## Kakao Summary Format

`큰 차트: [April-style/Trend break/etc]. 유사도 [...]/100. 반등 상태 [...]. 확인 조건 [...]. 무효화 [...]. SOXL/Cash [...].`